Floors and Ceilings: The 2014-15 Cleveland Cavaliers

 Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Lebron James, Kevin Love, and Anderson Varejao.  On paper, this takes the cake for the best Eastern Conference starting five. Also, you cannot ignore a bench that consists of Mike Miller, Tristan Thompson, Brendan Haywood, and Shawn Marion.  When we compare this team to the 2009-2014 Miami Heat, who reached four consecutive NBA finals, this team stacks up well – and then some. 

The Heat did a masterful job of crafting lineups in situational basketball, where Eric Spoelstra’s impact was underrated.  But when you look at sheer talent, it is hard to argue against this Cavs team.  Kevin Love may be an offensive upgrade to Chris Bosh -- but we will monitor if his defensive limitations outweigh the benefits of stretching the floor further than Bosh could. 

In reality, Love is actually a good on-ball post defender allowing .721 points per possession in post-up situations, according to Synergy Sports. The issue is his nonexistent pick-and-roll defense, but this should be disguised with James and Varejao's rotations – who are two of the best pick-and-roll defenders in the NBA. 

There is concern about this team's ability to guard opposing backcourts.  Without sugarcoating, both Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters are awful defenders.  No disrespect whatsoever!  It’s just a fact that neither exerts the proper effort that is needed to defend NBA guards; a culture that I assume will change with King James’ arrival.  

Kyrie Irving is undoubtedly one of the best offensive guards in the league.  We assume his playmaking abilities will improve with adding the NBA’s best player in James and the NBA’s best ‘stretch-4’ in Love.   This should alleviate the pressure for Kyrie to rack up points and instead focus on creating easy baskets for his teammates, utilizing endless handles and deceptive quickness to destroy defenders and rack up assists.  Not to mention, the Love to James outlet-pass connection will be obscene -- as seen below. 

I think despite playing a de-facto point forward,  James will end up with a higher assist average – especially considering that James tallied more assists in all three years since Irving entered the league.  Moreover, I believe Kyrie must raise his assist average to a career-high level if the Cavaliers want to bring a ring to Cleveland .  If they want to win the championship, they need to transform themselves into a top 10 defense – a category they ranked 17^th in last year.  Which leads to a pretty miraculous statistic – Lebron James’ teams have never ranked outside the top 10 in points scored against, aside from finishing 11th in his rookie year. 

Fearless forecast:

Irving and Waiters improve their defense due to James world-class work ethic – Kevin Love, James, and Irving create an inside, outside, slashing combo that is unstoppable in the half-court and sacrifice personal accolades for team achievement.  The deep bench, comprised of wily veterans, will play valuable minutes to keep the starters fresh and play specialty lineups that further distance the Cavs from the rest of the Eastern Conference.  They finish 61-21, get the number-one seed, and lose in the NBA finals to the Spurs, Clippers, or (my sleeper team), the Warriors!

Au contraire:

Irving and Waiters’ defense rears its ugly head and the team has constant difficulty guarding the better NBA backcourts.  Kevin Love is exposed as a stat-stuffer who cannot properly function on a championship team.  Lebron returns to Cleveland as a facilitator, when he really needed to return as the 2005 James that averaged 31.8 points.  The elderly bench falters as the season matures and the lack of coaching dooms their chemistry from the get-go.   They finish as the 3rd seed with a record of 48-34, coupled with a second-round exit in the playoffs.